Dell says its PC sales have slowed down due to the transition to Windows 11. Users are not
If you can recall, Microsoft had suggested that users trade or recycle their old PCs, and buy a new one that supports Windows 11. Are people doing that?
When asked about Windows End-of-Life upgrades, Jeff Clarke, COO, Dell Technologies said that "We have not completed the Windows 11 transition. In fact, if you were to look at it relative to the previous OS in the service, we are 10-12 points behind at that point with Windows 11 than we were the previous generation."
In case you forgot, Microsoft pulled the plug on Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. There are ways to extend security updates for free on Windows 10. Since it's only been a month since Windows 10 reached end-of-life, it's too early to expect users to buy new PCs to upgrade to Windows 11. But, the fact that a top executive at a PC manufacturing company said that the Windows 11 adoption rate is slow, is pretty important.
According to StatCounter, 41.74% of desktops were running on Windows 10 in October. Windows 11 had a market share of 55.18% in the same period. Now, when we compare this data to that from a year ago, Windows 10 had 60.95% of the market in October 2024, while Windows 11 held 35.58%. That difference is massive, and you might think that Windows 11 is rising in popularity. However, when you look at the recent numbers, the trend has slowed down considerably. Windows 10 dropped by just 2% in September 2025, while Windows 11 managed to see a 3% increase.
Why? Millions of PCs worldwide cannot be upgraded to Windows 11 due to strict hardware requirements. These are likely the numbers that contribute to the large chunk of Windows 10 users out there. They're stranded on Windows 10, a small percentage of those users may have drifted over to Linux or Mac, and some users may have opted not to upgrade to Windows 11 because of concerns about bloat, performance degradation, and privacy. Some people may have just stayed on Windows 10, because it works, why risk upgrading?
Clarke also said that "the PC refresh cycle remains durable, supported by an aging installed base and a significant portion of systems not yet upgraded to Windows 11. We still have ample opportunity to convert. If memory serves me right, the installed base is roughly $1.5 billion or 1.5 billion units. We have about 500 million of them capable of running Windows 11 that have not been upgraded. We have another 500 million that are four years old that cannot run Windows 11."
That is very interesting. Dell believes these are rich opportunities for it to rake some serious sales in. As The Register noted, Dell saw an 11% YoY increase in its revenue in Q3 FY 2026, it reported $27 billion in the quarter. The company said it is expecting $31.5 billion in revenue in Q4 and $111.7 billion in FY 2026.
Clarke noted that "AI PCs, small language models, more capable applications, improvements in operating systems and their capabilities, and the embedded AI there, the use of an NPU, the capability of an NPU in future PCs gives me the view that the PC market will continue to flourish going forward." Dell reported a revenue of $10.1 billion from servers and networking kit last quarter, which increased 37% YoY. But he also said that the PC market would be roughly flat year-over-year. You can read a transcript of Dell's earnings call at Fortune.
But we also need to factor end-users, I'm not sure AI is going to drive PC sales, most AI services are cloud-powered, all you need to use them is a browser or a desktop app. Not a lot of people are going to get a PC specifically for AI purposes. There are Copilot+ PCs, but those may not seem like an attractive option to the average buyer, who may just need a reliable computer.
There's something else to consider. RAM prices have gone through the roof, which in turn will affect computer sales too. Dell says it is prepared to meet the demand, having learned valuable lessons in supply chain management during the COVID-19 pandemic. If you look at the overall market, it's pretty bad right now. Console prices have increased significantly this year. A lot of these have been influenced by tariff policies.
How about you? Did you buy a new computer, or upgrade your old system to move to Windows 11?
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